Should Duke’s Fall from No. 1 Be Least of Blue Devils’ Concerns? | Zagsblog
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Adam Zagoria covers basketball at all levels. He is the author of two books and an award-winning journalist whose articles have appeared in ESPN The Magazine, SLAM, Sheridan Hoops, Sports Illustrated, Basketball Times and in newspapers nationwide.
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Friday / March 29.
  • Should Duke’s Fall from No. 1 Be Least of Blue Devils’ Concerns?

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    By MIKE McCURRY

    The Duke Blue Devils could have been confused with pyromaniacs for the majority of non-conference play.

    College basketball’s consensus preseason top-ranked team rallied from 16 down against Texas and 17 down against Florida, trailed at the half versus Portland State, and found itself in tight affairs late against Michigan State and Indiana.

    Playing with fire works…until you get burnt.

    Duke’s unsustainable crunch time flawlessness regressed to the mean at last on Saturday, when it was outscored 14-5 by Boston College over the final three minutes, resulting in a pair of firsts for the Blue Devils this season in both the loss and court storm categories.

    On Monday, Duke tumbled to No. 4 in the polls after holding the No. 1 ranking for the initial five weeks.

    But a modest drop in the rankings is not what’s likely keeping Mike Krzyzewski wide awake at night.

    It’s everything else.

    For an 11-1 team, one that possesses the highest ceiling in the country, Duke is not without its glaring warts. Those, all of which will be discussed in much greater detail below, include poor perimeter shooting, inconsistent shot distribution, youth, and an unreliable bench.

    Oh, pardon me for omitting defense.

    Like Duke, I tend to forget about that.

    The Blue Devils do have the benefit of time to address their numerous issues. Starting with this past Sunday, the day after the BC loss, Duke only has one game in a 20-day span before conference play resumes. With all of those upcoming practices conducted by a Hall-of-Fame coach that has five national titles in his back pocket, improvement is an inevitability.

    But how much progress is feasible? Because history is not on Duke’s side.

    Tangible history, that is.

    Yes, I’m well aware that in the 2009-10 season, Duke overcame losses in its first two ACC road games by winning the national championship.

    The difference is that Nolan Smith, Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and company showcased an ability and tenacity on the defensive end, two quintessential traits that this present version of the Blue Devils lack.

    Duke currently ranks 70th in KenPom’s comprehensive adjusted defensive efficiency metric.

    For context, in the KenPom Era (which dates back the last 17 seasons), the worst ADE rank for an eventual national champion entering the NCAA Tournament was 39th (UNC in 2008-09). The average ADE rank for those previous 16 squads that went on to cut the nets down was 16th.

    Even if Duke’s defensive abilities drastically level up from now until Selection Sunday, so too will its strength of schedule.

    The average KenPom rank of the opponents Duke has played to date: 123.

    The average KenPom rank of Duke’s remaining opponents: 55.

    The pieces surely exist. Marvin Bagley III should be a senior in high school, yet instead, he’s terrorizing collegiates to the tune of 21.3 points and 11.3 rebounds a night. Wendell Carter is actually shooting at a slightly higher clip than Bagley, with whom he forms one of the most terrifying high-low combinations in America. Grayson Allen and Gary Trent Jr. both have the firepower to hit seven three-pointers on any given day. And Trevon Duval is the closest thing to a true point guard Duke has employed since Tyus Jones.

    That said, think of how many things have to go right for Duke to reel off six consecutive wins in March. You can say that for a lot of teams, but for the preseason favorite, it’s a laundry list of items that ought to be shrinking by now, not expanding.

    Before Ky Bowman cashes in on another bucket without breaking a sweat, let’s diagnose Duke’s problems, shall we?

    THE INTANGIBLES

    Out of 351 Division-1 teams, Duke is 350th in KenPom’s experience metric. Only Kentucky is younger.

    Now, don’t get me wrong. No opposing coach is emphasizing with Krzyzewski for having to start these four freshmen—the Class of 2017’s No. 2 point guard, No. 3 shooting guard, No. 1 power forward, and No. 4 power forward—alongside Allen, the lone returnee to average more than eight minutes per game a year ago.

    That doesn’t mean Duke’s greenness goes unnoticed, though. Look no further than Saturday, when Duval committed a boneheaded Flagrant 1 foul late in the contest, awarding Boston College two shots and the ball.

    The more glaring figure is 313th, Duke’s national rank in bench minutes.

    The Blue Devils’ rotation is essentially eight deep. The three reserves consist of the underwhelming Marques Bolden, the foul-prone Javin DeLaurier (who is blown for almost seven whistles per 40 minutes), and freshman Alex O’Connell.

    Bagley and Carter can ill afford to fall victim to foul trouble. The same goes for Duval, as Coach K is bereft of a dependable backup point guard. On Saturday, Duval checked back in around the 12:00 mark in the first half with two fouls. Because when he’s on the bench, Allen has to slide to the point, where he’s less effective and not playing to his strengths. In general, the ball sticks more when Duval is sitting with the assistants.

    I’d have to imagine K’s worst nightmare come March is Bagley and Carter both limited whether due to injury or foul trouble, placing the fate of the entire 2017-18 season in the hands of Bolden. Gulp.

    OFFENSIVELY, DUKE IS OVER-RELIANT ON TWO-POINTERS, HAS SPACING ISSUES, AND SOMETIMES FORGETS ITS STRENGTHS.

    Duke ranks 1st in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, made field goals, offensive rebounds and assists while placing 2nd in points per game (93.3). To criticize this offense is mostly nitpicking.

    Let’s not act like they’re the Houston Rockets, though.

    Duke scored 1.14 points per possession on Saturday. That should be plenty to offset any defensive fallacies.

    Except it wasn’t, partly because Duke failed to execute offensively on its highest-leverage possessions. They carried a four-point lead with less than three minutes to go. Suddenly, they were down four with 36.1 seconds remaining following four straight empty trips:

    • Jim Christian has Boston College go zone. Duval, a 15% three-point shooter (5-of-33), misses a three with 15 seconds on the shot clock.
    • With BC still playing zone, Allen forces a pass to Bagley on a congested pick-and-roll, resulting in a turnover.
    • BC is back in man-to-man. Bagley gets a post touch deep in the key but, rather than shooting over his left shoulder, he gets too cute and attempts to dump it down to Carter. Turnover.
    • Allen shoots a low-percentage, heavily-contested floater while running to his left with 18 ticks on the shot clock. He misses, and BC holds Duke to a one-and-done situation yet again.
    That’s your ballgame, folks.

    Duke can take solace in knowing Bagley probably won’t play a worse game this season than he did on Saturday. He settled for a season-high four three-point attempts and matched a season-high with four turnovers. The southpaw needs to get back to frequenting the free throw line, an area he resided in at the PK80, when he was unstoppable.

    But can anyone tell me why, especially against a BC team that has lost top interior presence Deontae Hawkins for the season, Bagley and Carter combined for just 19 shots?

    Bagley’s eleven shots were his fewest this season, excluding his ten-minute cameo against Michigan State in which he departed with an eye injury. As for Carter, he has yet to reach double-digit field goal attempts, something Duval and Trent have each done seven times.

    Duke’s shot distribution has room for improvement. So too does its perimeter shooting.

    Allen has made 43% of his threes. The rest of Duke? 31%. That plus Duval being a non-threat from distance creates an over-reliance on two-pointers and a clogged interior.

    Trent Jr. can certainly help in that regard. He has knocked down 10-of-19 three-pointers over his last two games after a slow start beyond the arc (30% 3FG% in first ten games).

    DEFENSIVELY, DUKE LACKS AN IDENTITY, ALLOWS A BOATLOAD OF THREES, AND IS EXPOSED AT TIMES FOR THEIR TRADITIONAL LINEUP.  

    Ahh, last but not least, defense.

    Saturday was a bit of an aberration, in a sense. Boston College made 15 threes, the most allowed by Duke in the KenPom era (no Duke opponent even splashed double-digit three-pointers last season). The Golden Eagles entered the game averaging seven made threes per game on 32% shooting, only to match their season-high in triples on the first possession of the second half. Bowman, Jerome Robinson, and Jordan Chatman form one of the better backcourts in the ACC, but Duke allowed them to go off for a combined 76 points while looking like lottery picks. Which they’re not, in case you were confused.

    I say all that to say this. Everything BC threw up at the Conte Forum was going in. They scored 1.2 points per possession. Odds are they won’t even come close to matching that level of proficiency against a similar-caliber opponent this season.

    OK, that’s enough. I’m not here to exonerate Duke, because the Blue Devils did play a large role in allowing BC to have a field day.

    Duke isn’t particularly sound in either zone or man-to-man. Determining an identity on the defensive end would be a good place to start if you’re Coach K.

    His larger challenge will be getting all of his players to buy in on that side of the ball.

    Krzyzewski has been in this position before. In the 2014-2015 season, he was able to motivate a super young but talented roster and mask the defensive hindrances of Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones enough to win it all.

    Will we ever reach the point that this season’s Blue Devils care enough on D and take pride in getting stops?

    Duke is constantly in scramble mode, even on ATO (after timeout) plays. They looked lost defending many of Boston College’s half-court sets, and it’s not like the Golden Eagles were reinventing the wheel. How many in-rhythm jumpers did BC get, even off-the-bounce? How does Boston College outrebound Duke? (Got anything to add, Taurean Prince?)

    In an age of small ball, I think Duke’s traditional lineup featuring two bigs hurts them at times. Bagley and Carter aren’t used to spending this much time defending outside the paint. That might help explain why, so far, this is the Blue Devils’ worst perimeter defense in the KenPom era, in terms of both opponents’ three-point percentage (35%, right at the national average) and—the much more terrifying number—opponents’ three-point attempt rate (38%, blowing away Duke’s previous high of 30% set in 2015-2016).

    The biggest component that irked me about Duke’s defense against Boston College? Bagley switching onto the lead guard damn near every pick-and-roll. Advantage, BC.

    Skip ahead to the 3:10 mark in the video, where we see Duke’s pick-and-roll coverage get exposed by Bowman in consecutive plays on the highlight reel. On simple tandem high ball-screen action, the 6-foot-11, 234-pound Bagley switched onto the speedier 6-1, 188-pound Bowman, leaving MB3 on an island in which he was on his heels and provided no resistance whatsoever.

    The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie broke down a similar play beautifully here. This resulted in an and-one for Bowman, who finished with 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 9 assists and was the best player on a floor full of future first-round picks.

    Duke didn’t once switch up its coverage, so Boston College prudently went to the well over and over again. If Bowman is going to look like an All-American in those sets, how susceptible is Duke to the likes of Jalen Brunson, Landry Shamet, and Devonte’ Graham, all of whom they might face in win-or-go-home scenarios?

    ***

    The purpose of this Duke oeuvre is not to dismiss the Blue Devils as a legitimate national title contender. When all is said and done, Krzyzewski and company still have as good a chance as anybody to cut down the nets in San Antonio. We’ve learned time and again not to bet against K. Not this early, at least.

    Rather, this is to reinforce that Duke’s lethal blend of tantalizing potential and concrete vulnerabilities will make for great drama all season long.

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