By MIKE McCURRY
The Duke Blue Devils could have been confused with pyromaniacs for the majority of non-conference play.
College basketball’s consensus preseason top-ranked team rallied from 16 down against Texas and 17 down against Florida, trailed at the half versus Portland State, and found itself in tight affairs late against Michigan State and Indiana.
Playing with fire works…until you get burnt.
Duke’s unsustainable crunch time flawlessness regressed to the mean at last on Saturday, when it was outscored 14-5 by Boston College over the final three minutes, resulting in a pair of firsts for the Blue Devils this season in both the loss and court storm categories.
On Monday, Duke tumbled to No. 4 in the polls after holding the No. 1 ranking for the initial five weeks.
But a modest drop in the rankings is not what’s likely keeping Mike Krzyzewski wide awake at night.
It’s everything else.
For an 11-1 team, one that possesses the highest ceiling in the country, Duke is not without its glaring warts. Those, all of which will be discussed in much greater detail below, include poor perimeter shooting, inconsistent shot distribution, youth, and an unreliable bench.
Oh, pardon me for omitting defense.
Like Duke, I tend to forget about that.
The Blue Devils do have the benefit of time to address their numerous issues. Starting with this past Sunday, the day after the BC loss, Duke only has one game in a 20-day span before conference play resumes. With all of those upcoming practices conducted by a Hall-of-Fame coach that has five national titles in his back pocket, improvement is an inevitability.
But how much progress is feasible? Because history is not on Duke’s side.
Tangible history, that is.
Yes, I’m well aware that in the 2009-10 season, Duke overcame losses in its first two ACC road games by winning the national championship.
The difference is that Nolan Smith, Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and company showcased an ability and tenacity on the defensive end, two quintessential traits that this present version of the Blue Devils lack.
Duke currently ranks 70th in KenPom’s comprehensive adjusted defensive efficiency metric.
For context, in the KenPom Era (which dates back the last 17 seasons), the worst ADE rank for an eventual national champion entering the NCAA Tournament was 39th (UNC in 2008-09). The average ADE rank for those previous 16 squads that went on to cut the nets down was 16th.
Even if Duke’s defensive abilities drastically level up from now until Selection Sunday, so too will its strength of schedule.
The average KenPom rank of the opponents Duke has played to date: 123.
The average KenPom rank of Duke’s remaining opponents: 55.
The pieces surely exist. Marvin Bagley III should be a senior in high school, yet instead, he’s terrorizing collegiates to the tune of 21.3 points and 11.3 rebounds a night. Wendell Carter is actually shooting at a slightly higher clip than Bagley, with whom he forms one of the most terrifying high-low combinations in America. Grayson Allen and Gary Trent Jr. both have the firepower to hit seven three-pointers on any given day. And Trevon Duval is the closest thing to a true point guard Duke has employed since Tyus Jones.
That said, think of how many things have to go right for Duke to reel off six consecutive wins in March. You can say that for a lot of teams, but for the preseason favorite, it’s a laundry list of items that ought to be shrinking by now, not expanding.
Before Ky Bowman cashes in on another bucket without breaking a sweat, let’s diagnose Duke’s problems, shall we?
THE INTANGIBLES
Out of 351 Division-1 teams, Duke is 350th in KenPom’s experience metric. Only Kentucky is younger.
Now, don’t get me wrong. No opposing coach is emphasizing with Krzyzewski for having to start these four freshmen—the Class of 2017’s No. 2 point guard, No. 3 shooting guard, No. 1 power forward, and No. 4 power forward—alongside Allen, the lone returnee to average more than eight minutes per game a year ago.
That doesn’t mean Duke’s greenness goes unnoticed, though. Look no further than Saturday, when Duval committed a boneheaded Flagrant 1 foul late in the contest, awarding Boston College two shots and the ball.
The more glaring figure is 313th, Duke’s national rank in bench minutes.
The Blue Devils’ rotation is essentially eight deep. The three reserves consist of the underwhelming Marques Bolden, the foul-prone Javin DeLaurier (who is blown for almost seven whistles per 40 minutes), and freshman Alex O’Connell.
Bagley and Carter can ill afford to fall victim to foul trouble. The same goes for Duval, as Coach K is bereft of a dependable backup point guard. On Saturday, Duval checked back in around the 12:00 mark in the first half with two fouls. Because when he’s on the bench, Allen has to slide to the point, where he’s less effective and not playing to his strengths. In general, the ball sticks more when Duval is sitting with the assistants.
I’d have to imagine K’s worst nightmare come March is Bagley and Carter both limited whether due to injury or foul trouble, placing the fate of the entire 2017-18 season in the hands of Bolden. Gulp.
OFFENSIVELY, DUKE IS OVER-RELIANT ON TWO-POINTERS, HAS SPACING ISSUES, AND SOMETIMES FORGETS ITS STRENGTHS.
Duke ranks 1st in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, made field goals, offensive rebounds and assists while placing 2nd in points per game (93.3). To criticize this offense is mostly nitpicking.
Let’s not act like they’re the Houston Rockets, though.
Duke scored 1.14 points per possession on Saturday. That should be plenty to offset any defensive fallacies.
Except it wasn’t, partly because Duke failed to execute offensively on its highest-leverage possessions. They carried a four-point lead with less than three minutes to go. Suddenly, they were down four with 36.1 seconds remaining following four straight empty trips:
- Jim Christian has Boston College go zone. Duval, a 15% three-point shooter (5-of-33), misses a three with 15 seconds on the shot clock.
- With BC still playing zone, Allen forces a pass to Bagley on a congested pick-and-roll, resulting in a turnover.
- BC is back in man-to-man. Bagley gets a post touch deep in the key but, rather than shooting over his left shoulder, he gets too cute and attempts to dump it down to Carter. Turnover.
- Allen shoots a low-percentage, heavily-contested floater while running to his left with 18 ticks on the shot clock. He misses, and BC holds Duke to a one-and-done situation yet again.
Duke didn’t once switch up its coverage, so Boston College prudently went to the well over and over again. If Bowman is going to look like an All-American in those sets, how susceptible is Duke to the likes of Jalen Brunson, Landry Shamet, and Devonte’ Graham, all of whom they might face in win-or-go-home scenarios? *** The purpose of this Duke oeuvre is not to dismiss the Blue Devils as a legitimate national title contender. When all is said and done, Krzyzewski and company still have as good a chance as anybody to cut down the nets in San Antonio. We’ve learned time and again not to bet against K. Not this early, at least. Rather, this is to reinforce that Duke’s lethal blend of tantalizing potential and concrete vulnerabilities will make for great drama all season long. Follow Mike on Twitter Follow Adam Zagoria on Twitter And like ZAGS on FacebookBC did this quite a few times, too. Got Bagley switched onto a guard, then attacked with a 1-5 spread PnR, putting Bagley/Center (Bolden here) into perimeter coverage. Not only is it a tough cover for those two, but it pulls all rim protection away from the basket. pic.twitter.com/X38CykIEmI
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) December 9, 2017