The NBA Draft Combine begins this week in Chicago with 63 official participants and ESPN2 will have live coverage on Thursday and Friday from 3-7 p.m. EST.
Here are six key storylines heading into the Combine. Check back on ZAGSBLOG later this week for on-site coverage.
1. Who’s not coming?
The biggest name absent from the Combine is former LSU freshman Ben Simmons, a projected top-2 pick along with former Duke forward Brandon Ingram, who will be in attendance. Gonzaga’s Domantas Sabonis and Washington’s Dejounte Murray are also sitting it out.
Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com had some good analysis on this:
“Simmons electing not to attend is not a major surprise, as it’s become customary for top picks to decline invites in the past few years. While we fondly recall the likes of Greg Oden and Kevin Durant jacking up 3-pointers during full-court transition drills at the 2007 NBA Combine in Orlando, those days are long past. Anthony Bennett started the trend in 2013 by electing to stay home and nurse a shoulder injury he had surgery on a few weeks prior to the Combine. In 2014, Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid all did the same, while in 2015, Karl Towns, Jahlil Okafor and Emmanuel Mudiay followed suit.
“The reason for that? Agents would prefer not to have their clients go through the exhaustive medical screening the NBA puts every Combine participant through, especially now that the Combine is held before the official order of the NBA draft is set at the Lottery (this year May 17th). The physical is an incredibly important component to most team’s decision making process, and is one of the few pieces of leverage agents have.”
2. Who can help their stock the most?
Guys who play 5-on-5 and are currently projected as late-first or early-second round picks in 2016– or as picks in 2017 — could really help themselves. Seton Hall sophomore guard Isaiah Whitehead, Florida State freshman guard Malik Beasley, St. Joe’s junior wing DeAndre’ Bembry and Maryland sophomore guard Melo Trimble are among the guys in this category. Beasley is projected at No. 28 by DraftExpress.com, while Bembry is at No. 30 and Trimble ranks at No. 36. Beasley and Bembry have signed with agents and will remain in the Draft, while Trimble didn’t sign with an agent. Whitehead, who has also not yet signed with an agent and can return to campus, is projected as a second-round pick in 2017.
“I believe his stock is up with some clubs,” one NBA scout said of the 6-foot-5 Whitehead. “The Combine can really help him and give a boost to the different people who like him with the various teams.”
The scout added: “Anyone who really plays well, measures longer and is bigger than listed and wins the running and jumping contests if they do a good job on the court [can help himself.]”
Also, as Zach Braziller of the New York Post wrote Monday, the decisions by guys like Whitehead, Providence’s Ben Bentil and Villanova’s Josh Hart could really impact the fate of the Big East next season. If Hart returns to Villanova, the Wildcats could contend for back-to-back NCAA championships. If Whitehead comes back, Seton Hall could build off last year’s NCAA Tournament appearance and make a run in March. Providence could be a factor at the top of the league if Bentil returns to campus.
3. Who has nothing to lose?
Young guys who didn’t hire an agent definitely fall into this category. That group includes Trimble, Syracuse freshman guard Malachi Richardson, Purdue freshman forward Caleb Swanigan, Indiana sophomore wing Troy Williams and Villanova‘s Hart.
While Trimble is projected at No. 36 in 2016 by DraftExpress.com, most of these guys are projected in the 2017 Draft, with Swanigan at No. 26, Hart at 45 and Williams at 48. Richardson is listed as the No. 54 best prospect.
Syracuse fans would love to see Richardson return for his sophomore season and help the Orange build off their Final Four run, along with the additions of Tyus Battle, Matthew Moyer, Paschal Chukwu and possibly Omer Yurtseven.
4. What are your chances of getting drafted after the Combine?
Just because you’re invited to the Combine doesn’t mean you’re getting drafted. Historically, 25 percent of players at the Combine don’t get drafted and roughly 40 percent of players at the Combine don’t sign in the NBA at all in their rookie season, one agent who has tracked the numbers told SNY.tv. In 2013, 18 players at the Combine weren’t drafted. In 2014, the number was 15. And last year, it was 21.
“Those underclassmen probably have no clue about that,” the agent said. “But that’s reality.”
Conversely, several players not at the Combine likely will get drafted. Last year there were five U.S.-based players not at the Combine who got drafted: Josh Richardson, Darrun Hilliard, Cady Lalanne, Satnam Singh and Sir’Dominic Pointer. A guy like Notre Dame’s Zach Auguste (or Ogoost for those of us who were there for that question at the NCAA Tournament) could follow suit this year following his workouts with 15+ teams.
5. The Kentucky effect
When Marcus Lee was elevated off the alternate list, it gave Kentucky four guys at the Combine: Jamal Murray, Skal Labissiere, Tyler Ulis and Lee. Only Maryland has as many players with Robert Carter Jr., Diamond Stone, Jake Layman and Trimble. (North Carolina and Kansas have three apiece.)
Murray and Labissiere are projected as lottery picks, while the 5-9 Ulis will be an interesting test case but is projected at No. 19 by DraftExpress.com.
The 6-10 Lee is ranked the No. 29 junior by DraftExpress.com, but his future could have an impact on Kentucky’s 2016 recruiting class.
Marques Bolden, a 6-10 big man from DeSoto (TX), has yet to decide between Duke or Kentucky, and some believe if Lee bolts for the NBA it could make Bolden more likely to pick the Wildcats.
6. Which teams are more likely to take a gamble in the Draft?
The Boston Celtics could have as many as eight picks in next month’s NBA Draft, while other teams like Toronto, Denver and Philadelphia have multiple picks.
Those teams could be more likely to take a flyer on an unproven guy with potential upside like Thon Maker, Cheick Diallo or Labissiere, figuring they could stash the player overseas for a few years or groom him in the D-League.
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