The 2016-17 college basketball season is upon is and it could well turn into the Year of the Fabulous Freshmen.
Twelve of the top 14 projected picks in the 2017 NBA Draft according to DraftExpress.com are freshmen.
Duke, Kentucky and Kansas — the top three teams in The Associated Press preseason Top 25 — all feature projected one-and-done lottery picks coming to a television near you. (Interestingly, No. 4 Villanova and No. 5 Oregon do not feature any projected one-and-dones.)
And all of the freshmen hype, of course, has engendered NBA Draft Tank Slogans such as “Lose like hell for Markelle.”
Washington’s Markelle Fultz, the 6-foot-5 guard who led the USA U18 basketball team to a gold medal this summer, is the projected No. 1 pick. Even though he plays in the Pac-12 on the West Coast, he may be worth staying up late for.
“I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t be in the running to be the No. 1 pick next year,” Texas head coach Shaka Smart, the head coach of the U18 team, said on The 4 Quarters Podcast.
“He can do everything. He’s got great size for a guard. He’s a terrific athlete. He’s got a great body that’s only getting better and better. And he’s a humble kid who wants to work, wants to be part of a team, doesn’t mind getting coached and being held accountable. So when you add all those things up, he’s a dream. I’m happy for [Washington coach] Lorenzo [Romar] that he’s going to get to coach him.”
N.C. State freshmen point guard Dennis Smith is the projected No. 2 pick, Duke forward Jayson Tatum sits at No. 3, Kansas wing Josh Jackson is No. 4 and Duke forward Harry Giles, who has had three knee procedures since 2013 and has yet to practice, is No. 5.
“There is more depth at the top [of the draft] compared to last season,” one NBA scout said. “Can they stay healthy is the question. There are a number of guys at the top who have already missed some time due to injuries.”
“Early mocks are nothing but great discussion points,” a second scout said. “[Fultz] was a great high school player and MVP of the Under 18 championship tourney. The PAC-12 and the college season await. He is way up on most NBA boards but there is a long way to go till Draft night next June.”
Three projected one-and-done lottery picks come from Duke in Tatum, Giles and 6-11 freshman Marques Bolden (No. 8), and all three have already experienced leg or foot injuries before the season has begun.
Two come from Kentucky in No. 10 Bam Adebayo and No. 12 De’Aaron Fox. (High-flying freshman guard Malik Monk is at No. 18.)
And three hail from the Pac-12 in Fultz, No. 13 Lauri Markkanen of Arizona and No. 14 Lonzo Ball of UCLA. Cal sophomore Ivan Rabb is also projected at No. 9.
“I think the [Pac-12] coaches and their staffs are doing a phenomenal job of identifying the guys that they can get,” Washington’s Romar, who has another projected one-and-done coming in 2017 in 6-9 forward Michael Porter Jr., told ESPNU on Thursday.
“I don’t see out on the recruiting trail coaches in this conference just chasing something that’s not possible. I think these guys do a good job. I think the Pac-12 is a conference that’s really, really growing, as evidenced by how many teams were in the NCAA Tournament last year. And I think it’s a very appealing conference to play in. It’s an up-and-down style, up-and down tempo and I think it’s a lot of fun, and I think kids across the country are recognizing this.”
Many of these top freshmen will be on display on national television early in the season.
To open the season on Friday night, the Armed Forces Classic features No. 10 Arizona against No. 12 Michigan State and No. 11 Indiana against No. 3 Kansas.
Ten NBA scouts are expected in Honolulu for the event which will feature Arizona’s Markkanen, a 7-footer who has drawn comparisons to Dirk Nowitzki, and Michigan State’s Miles Bridges, a 6-6 small forward projected as a first-round pick in 2017 and whom head coach Tom Izzo has raved about.
The second game features Indiana’s Thomas Bryant, a 6-10 sophomore projected as the No. 20 pick, against Jackson and Kansas.
On Tuesday, the Champions Classic comes to Madison Square Garden and is expected to draw upwards of 50-60 NBA personnel.
No. 1 Duke will face No. 3 Kansas, while No. 2 Kentucky meets No. 12 Michigan State.
Eleven of the 30 projected first-round picks in 2017 will be on rosters for those games, although Giles and Bolden are unlikely to play.
With the scouts in attendance, will some of them be planning to “Cease all action for Josh Jackson“?
Perhaps their “GM’s ultimatum will be to lose games for Jayson Tatum”?
Maybe they will decide to “Kick rocks for De’Aaron Fox”?
Or perhaps they will opt to “Stay in a year-long jam to get Bam”?
While Tank Slogans are good fun (and highly encouraged), ESPN’s Fran Fraschilla sends a note of caution on all the fabulous freshmen with the season upon us.
“When the games start, then we’ll find out if a Josh Jackson or a Bam Adebayo is dominating the competition to the point where you say, ‘That kid’s going to be a very good NBA player,'” Fraschilla told me. “All these guys are likely going in the first round, but the impact they make on their college teams, that needs to be proven. I think NBA teams feel the same way about these guys. I didn’t see a guy that I think could be a dominant NBA rookie.”
Follow Adam Zagoria on Twitter
And like ZAGS on Facebook
